A referendum to be held next year will determine whether Lithuanians can have more than one citizenship, with the authorities aiming to maintain ties with the country among the Lithuanian diaspora, but also hoping to gain influence abroad. The population seems in favor, but the outcome of the vote is not so certain.
Vilmorus, a Lithuanian market research organization, conducted a survey of 1,000 Lithuanians to get a sense of public opinion on dual citizenship, ahead of a referendum that will take place in May 2024.
Currently, Lithuanians are allowed to have only one nationality, except for exceptional circumstances. On May 12th, a referendum will take place, to decide if Lithuanian citizens by birth will be allowed to have multiple citizenships.
Referendum
People born Lithuanian who emigrated after 1990 have not been able to keep their Lithuanian nationality if they have obtained citizenship from another country. Currently, Lithuania is one of four European Union countries that have dual citizenship restrictions in place, barring specific circumstances, including Austria, Slovakia, and the Netherlands. Germany changed its law this year to allow dual citizenship more easily.
Dalia Asanavičiūtė, from the majority party, Homeland Union, in the Seimas, Lithuania’s Parliament, said that 1 million Lithuanians are abroad who have lost their citizenship or are in danger of doing so.
“The citizenship referendum is very important not only for our diaspora, which is made up of more than 1 million persons of Lithuanian origin residing abroad, but also for Lithuania itself,” Ms. Asanavičiūtė said.
She also said that this referendum was “a matter of national security,” because of the influence of dual citizens abroad. She commended the efforts of Lithuanian dual citizens in influencing foreign countries to support Ukraine in the context of the conflict with Russia. Lithuania was the first country of the Soviet Union to declare its independence before the bloc collapsed a year later in 1991.
The referendum will essentially answer the question if dual citizenships will be allowed. If the result is ‘Yes’, the following statement will be removed from the constitution: “Except in the cases provided for by law, no one may be a citizen of the Republic of Lithuania and of another country.” This amendment would make dual citizenship a right for native Lithuanians, and facilitate their children’s.
Poll results suggest not enough turnout
Vilmorus told us that the dual citizen survey used multistage random sampling as its method, surveying adult Lithuanians from different households face-to-face throughout the country. Two questions were part of the survey: If they support the legalization of dual citizenship, and if they will come out to vote on May 12th.
Results show that 20.1% of surveyed people answered that they strongly agree with the dual citizenship proposal. Also, 31.6% of surveyed people said they somewhat agree with it, making for a total of 51.7% of the population that is in agreement with the amendment. Additionally, 15.1% said they have no opinion. However, it is not that simple.
For the referendum’s result to be considered, at least half of the eligible population needs to participate. However, it will not be enough if over half of the votes are ‘Yes’. Since it is a “double absolute majority vote,” ‘Yes’ votes must also account for 50% or more of the voter population.
In terms of expected turnout, the poll found that 67.8% of surveyed people said they would go to vote on the 12th of May. Even if this is accurate, this means that around 1,695,000 people will vote. For a ‘Yes’ result, it would require that around 1,300,000 (77%) of these voters vote ‘Yes’.
The previous referendum on this matter in 2019 had 73,92% of the votes go toward ‘Yes’. However, there were not enough ‘Yes’ votes, as they only accounted for 38% of the voting population.
It seems that turnout may be the key for the referendum to have a different result this time. In Lithuania, young people tend to vote less than the older population. The poll showed that the young population is also the most in favor of dual citizenship.
Youth prefers ‘Yes’
A significant 71.3% of the young population (under 29) said they agreed to some degree with dual citizenship. The trend was the contrary for older populations, dropping to 34.5% agreement for citizens aged seventy or older.
The study of potential voters also showed that the majority of people who would vote for the party in power, Homeland Union, is in favor of dual citizenship, with 64.9% approval. Almost 90% of these same people also said that they would go and vote during the election.
People who said they would vote for the Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union, the party with the second most seats in the Seimas, were the most opposed to dual citizenship. They were split on dual citizenship, as 39.5% were in favor of it, and 40.8% were against it. The rest had no opinion. This group is also expected to have a high turnout, as 73.7% of respondents said they will go out to vote on May 12th.
Lithuanian emigrants
Lithuanians have consistently emigrated out of the country to work since 1990, when the country regained its independence from the Soviet Union. Many Lithuanians in the world do not have their nationality anymore, which may disconnect families from their roots.
“If this time the Lithuanians successfully amend the Constitution, it will enable hundreds of thousands of Lithuanians to restore their Lithuanian citizenship,” said Lithuanian Citizenship, a company that helps Lithuanians abroad revive their citizenship.
“In particular, this will enable their children not to break the connection with the homeland of their ancestors.”
The referendum will occur around the same time as the upcoming Lithuanian general election.
