A sudden 95% decline in opium production in Afghanistan and an uncertain economy in Myanmar have led to a major production increase in the country.
According to the latest United Nations Office for Drugs and Crime (UNODC) report, Myanmar is now the world’s number one producer of opium following a 95 percent decline in opiates in Afghanistan due to a drug ban there by the Taliban in 2022.
The gross value of Myanmar’s current production, “including consumption and export of heroin and opium, was between 2–4% of the Myanmar GDP, estimated to be $US1‑2.5 billion,” according to the report. It’s believed that 1,080 metric tons were farmed in the past year.
Following years of decreased yields between 2014–2020, opium production in the Southeast Asian country is now at its highest level in 20 years. Myanmar farmers now earn 75 percent more from opium poppy farming, as average prices of the flower have reached about US$355 per kilogram. The area under cultivation was also estimated to have increased by 18% from last year alone.
The UNODC also claims that poppy farming in the country is becoming more sophisticated due to increased investment, better practices, and the possible use of fertilizers, which have increased crop yields.
The main farming area in the country is said to be the Shan state, which is also one of the biggest producers of methamphetamines in the region. Shan, gripped by internal fighting in recent weeks, accounted for 88 percent of the 41,300 hectares (102,054 acres) of opium poppy areas nationwide, a 20% increase compared to last year, according to the report. Shan occupies almost a quarter of the country’s land mass.
Poor economy and instability due to the military seizing power of the country in 2021 “appears to have played a significant role in farmers’ decisions in late 2022 to cultivate more poppy,” says the report.
It’s believed that some of the factors leading to greater poppy cultivation in the Shan and Kachin states include less access to public services and infrastructure, less annual income from licit sources, and challenging social and economic environments, including rampant inflation and political instability.
“Households and villages in Myanmar that engage in poppy cultivation and the broader opium economy do so to supplement income or because they lack other legitimate opportunities,” according to the report.
The “Golden Triangle” border region between Myanmar, Laos, and Thailand has long been well known as a hotspot for illegal drug production and trafficking. Earlier this year, the head of Myanmar’s Central Committee on Drug Abuse Control claimed its efforts to stop the drug trade were having no impact.
But analysts claim the military is not serious about ending the trade. The army is “actually the ultimate protection cartel of the trade, and have been for many years,” independent analyst David Mathieson told AFP earlier this year.
There’s also speculation that given Afghanistan’s long-dominant role in the opium trade, its sudden decrease could lead to a global shortage and continued increase in Myanmar’s production due to economic factors.
