The Taliban’s ban of opium production in April 2022 is showing results now. Previously the largest exporter of opium, Afghan farmers must find substitute crops to survive, as the rest of the world may have to find substitutes for opiates.
A report by the United Nations (UN) has shown that Afghanistan’s production of poppy has plummeted relative to 2022. Afghanistan has been the largest producer and exporter of poppy, which is the crop that yields opium, the necessary element for creating drugs like heroin as well as opioids, which are legally used in prescription medications such as certain painkillers on a large scale in the United States.
In April 2022, the Taliban issued a national ban on the production of poppy and all narcotics in Afghanistan, which includes a ban on selling and using the products. The Taliban already instituted a ban of this nature in the year 2000, when they previously had control of Afghanistan.
According to the UN’s report, utilizing data from the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), in 2021, exports of poppy accounted for 9–14% of Afghanistan’s gross domestic product. A number of statistics detailing the dramatic and likely devastating fall in production are available in the report.
The year 2023 has seen a 90% reduction of the value of opium exports relative to 2021. In 2022, Afghan farmers reportedly received 1.36 billion dollars in poppy sales. In 2023, that figure fell to 110 million dollars (8%). Consequently, the price of opium has skyrocketed.
The report details the risk that this poses to the livelihoods of farmers in Afghanistan.
Farmers depended on sales of opium for their regular income which they would use to purchase basic necessities. Farmers did not tend to keep reserves of opium, meaning they will have to find new crops to depend on. A viable option is wheat, which grows in the same season as opium and allows farmers to survive on the crop itself. However, according to the UN, the profits from wheat are significantly lower than profits from opium.
Vanda Felbab-Brown, a foreign policy and illicit economy expert of the Brookings Institute, said that the livelihoods of farmers depend on the sale of opium, with devastating consequences. “Under the worst circumstances, the affected communities are not only forced to liquidate their productive and human development assets but also sell their very young daughters as brides,” Felbab-Brown said in an address to the UK Parliament.
On the other hand, there are also mentioned new opportunities brought about by this ban. Given that opium is used for illicit substances like heroin, the report mentions that this drastic reduction in poppy cultivation may “bring the country towards a licit trajectory of development with far reaching implications.” This could lead Afghanistan to find economic stability within other industries, without the implications of exporting illegal substances around the world.
In spite of the possible economic and social benefits for Afghanistan, there are a number of alternative outcomes mentioned as well. It is possible that the burden of opium production will simply fall on a different country. It is also possible that a shortage of opium worldwide may lead people to “more harmful alternatives” to heroin and opioids, such as synthetic opioids such as fentanyl, according to the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency.
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), in 2019 there were 600,000 deaths worldwide attributable to drug use. Close to 80% of these deaths were related to opioid. There were estimates that approximately 125,000 people died of opioid overdose in 2019. Numbers continue rising amongst several countries to this day.
This is all in ignorance of opiate use in Afghanistan, which exists as well. In addition to the loss of income, the UN writes that evidence-based treatment for opium users is non-existent in the country. The executive director of the UNODC, Ghada Waly, said in a press release that the reduction presents a possibility to create results against the illicit market for heroin, however, she mentioned the crisis caused for Afghan farmers.
“Today, Afghanistan’s people need urgent humanitarian assistance to meet their most immediate needs, to absorb the shock of lost income and to save lives,” Waly said. She still concluded that this reduction is an “ultimately positive” outcome.
Jennifer Shoemaker contributed reporting
